The non-waiver trade deadline is rapidly approaching, and the Colorado Rockies have fallen out of contention this season. With a playoff spot effectively out of reach, the Rockies are in a good place to try and shop players on the trade market.
The Rockies’ needs are well known: pitching, and as much of it as they can get their hands on. Any potential trade that happens will likely involve sending some young, cost-effective arms to Colorado, to try and lead future rotations for the Rockies.
The best way to approach this is to identify teams with an interest in the Rockies top offerings, and prepare a hypothetical package that could net them a player off the Rockies’ roster.
This article will focus on any potential trades for Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, highlighting several potential trade partners and trying to identify players the Rockies could realistically demand in return.
The Obvious Trade Partner: New York Mets
The Mets are obvious trade partners for several reasons. First, they’ve been searching for a good shortstop since they lost Jose Reyes – since they traded him to the Miami Marlins before the 2012 season, shortstops for the Mets have combined for a wRC+ of 85, 15 percent below average. Second, the Mets’ offense this season has been well below average – bottom five in all of baseball by wRC+ this season and dead last in batting average. Third, and most importantly for the Rockies, the Mets have a stable of young, talented, cost-efficient pitching talent. If the Rockies plan on trading Tulo, the front office is going to demand pitchers in return.
The Mets have attractive assets they could use in a trade with the Rockies for Tulowitzki, with a package likely headlined by one of Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, or Zach Wheeler.
The timing of a potential trade at this point in the season may be a problem. Each of those three pitchers has now made their MLB debuts – each with some degree of success, even in limited innings. The longer they stay in the majors for the Mets, the less willing they will be to give them up.
Prior to the beginning of the 2015 season, rumors swirled that the Rockies’ top target from a trade with the Mets would have been Syndergaard. But with Syndergaard’s impressive rookie season, it seems less and less likely that the Mets would seek to move him. Instead, they may look for a cheaper alternative at shortstop, electing to retain as much top-shelf pitching as possible.
Wheeler is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which is a risk the Rockies would likely try to avoid when dealing their superstar shortstop. That leaves one option from the Mets’ top pitching assets – Steven Matz.
Matz is a talented pitcher, but was not heralded in quite in the same regard as Syndergaard, which would make it harder for the Rockies to pull the trigger on a trade unless they could convince the Mets to throw in several other top ranked prospects. Both of these teams seem to have the right pieces to make this trade, but it also seems like the best window of opportunity has already closed.
A trade with the Mets centered on Matz would likely include several other top prospects from the Mets’ organization – however most of their top organizational talent is in positions the Rockies don’t really need (outfield and shortstop, mainly), and after the big three pitchers already mentioned, the Mets’ next best pitching prospect is still only in High-A ball. The Rockies don’t have a great track record with pitcher development, and they may be reluctant to trade for a prospect so far away from contributing at the major league level.
The Rockies could inquire into the availability of another pitcher from the Mets: Matt Harvey. Harvey is just as young, talented, and cost-controlled as any of their other prospects, but has the advantage of having already pitched almost two seasons at the major league level (and has already undergone Tommy John, for what that’s worth). This advantage would also make it less likely for the Mets to trade him, as Harvey almost won himself a Cy Young in his rookie season. Still, it would be borderline negligent for the Rockies to not ask about his availability, as he would represent a much more valuable return than a package centered on Matz.
The real problem here is that each of these pitchers have either proven themselves too valuable for the Mets to move, or aren’t in a position to give the Rockies what they feel is the proper return for their superstar. Pitchers like Syndergaard, Harvey, and Jacob DeGrom are too important to the Mets, while other options like Wheeler and Matz may not be worth enough to swing a deal.
Ultimately, despite appearing like perfect trade partners on paper, the window for trading Tulo to the Mets may have already closed. It’s possible that the two teams could still hammer out a deal, but the circumstances surrounding the Mets’ assets may have made them too valuable to deal. Based on their deal with the Braves for Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson, the Mets may have decided on cheaper options to bolster their offense, without sacrificing their top-shelf prospects.
However, another potential trade partner for the Rockies plays just across town…
The Runner Up: New York Yankees
This would be tricker – the Yankees at first glance don’t have the same number of enticing prospects that their cross-town neighbors can boast. They do, however, have a Derek Jeter-sized hole at shortstop, currently manned by a very uninspiring combination of Didi Gregorius and Stephen Drew. The Yankees are caught in the middle of a tight race for the AL East, and could definitely stand to replace the borderline replacement-level players they’ve thrown out at shortstop this season.
The Rockies could start off the negotiations by demanding that any package for Tulo be headlined by Yankees top prospect Luis Severino. A right-handed pitcher posting strong strikeout and walk numbers all throughout the minor leagues, Severino wields a power fastball with an above average changeup and slider – all pitches known to suffer the least from the high altitude at Coors Field.
The rest of the Yankees’ farm system is generally devoid of pitching talent at the upper levels, either projecting as strong relief pitchers (which the Rockies shouldn’t necessarily invest in at this point in a potential rebuild) or rely on their curveball (which would suffer greatly at Coors).
Severino is as good a trade target as anyone the Rockies would demand from the Mets, and the Yankees historically haven’t shied away from taking on larger contracts like Tulo’s. Considering that the Rockies likely wouldn’t get more than one top-shelf prospect from the Mets anyway, the Yankees may end up being just as good a fit for Tulowitzki.
The Dark Horse: Washington Nationals
This may be somewhat of a pipe dream, but the circumstances are just convenient enough to contemplate.
The Nationals have several things:
- 2015 World Series ambitions – the Nationals are in win-now mode
- An offense almost entirely propped up by one hitter – Bryce Harper
- An underwhelming shortstop expected to leave after the end of the season – Ian Desmond
- No qualms with spending money
- Several pitching prospects worth headlining a prospect package for Tulo
If the Nationals were to trade for Tulo, they could offer a package with several pitching prospects – MLB.com has five of the Nationals’ top six prospects as pitchers. Nationals’ top prospect Lucas Giolito is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, but relies on a curveball as his main breaking pitch. However, prospects AJ Cole and Joe Ross both have sliders and changeups in their repertoire, making them attractive targets in any transaction that would send Tulo to our nation’s capital.
The bigger obstacle would be Ian Desmond, the Nationals’ incumbent shortstop. He’s set to become a free agent after this season, meaning that Tulowitzki could easily slide in to take his position in 2016. However, were the Nationals to trade for Tulo before the trade deadline, they’d have to find something to do with Desmond.
In theory they could just bench him, or try to use him in some sort of super-utility role considering all of the injuries the Nationals have sustained across their infield this season, but it’s unlikely that Desmond would be overly pleased with that role. The other option in that case would be to trade him to a team looking for a rental shortstop. The same trade partners for Tulo would likely apply to Desmond as well, but Desmond would come at a much cheaper price. This opens up other potential trade partners too – teams looking for a middle infield bat that doesn’t come with the blue-sticker price tag that Tulowitzki would.
It would require a good amount of gymnastics to work it out, but the Nationals have the means, motive, and opportunity to make it happen.
There are other teams around baseball that could use a superstar for the playoff push, but few have the resources, both prospect and financial, to swing a trade for Tulowitzki. That shouldn’t deter the Rockies though – they have a valuable asset, and should seek to capitalize as much as possible. The above teams may represent the best the market has to offer Colorado for the face of their franchise.
The post Let’s make a trade – Troy Tulowitzki appeared first on Triple Play Tribune.
